The Regime of Siyad Barre

The immediate cause of the current conflict is traced to the fall of Siyad Barre in 1991 and the resulting state of anarchy. It is thought that the crisis began when Barre ended democracy in Somalia through his military coup in 1969. Supported by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Barre’s dictatorship adopted a socialist political system in Somalia. Among the first policies implemented was the abolition of the Somali clan and patronage system. Barre launched a campaign called olole against "tribalism, corruption, nepotism and misrule" outlawing all clan alliances, activities, and organizations. As Somali socio-cultural infrastructure was, to this point, entirely dependent upon clan identification, this fundamental change to the system stirred up ethnic tensions.

A series of military defeats caused a rapid change in Barre's policies during the late 1970s and early 1980s. A military campaign in Ogaden, Ethiopia failed due to the Soviet Union’s decision to support the Marxist Ethiopian regime instead of Barre. As a result of this reversal, he severed ties with the USSR, discarded his socialist policies, restoring the traditional clan system. After the defeat in the Ogaden, Somalia suffered through several economic and political crises. Eventually, rebel groups organized to oust Siyad Barre in 1991 as a direct result of popular dissatisfaction with his polices and record of indiscriminate attacks which displaced millions of civilians.

Failed Intervention

Between 1991 and 1993, Somalia experienced some of the worst fighting in its history as open conflict exploded throughout the country after the fall of Barre's regime. The major insurgent groups split into factions along clan lines and began to compete for political and economic power. The fighting not only led to large-scale massacres of innocent civilians, but also severely affected the local harvest, creating an unprecedented regional famine. As tens of thousands of people began to die of starvation and related diseases, insurgent groups obstructed aid efforts and looted relief goods.

In April 1992, UNOSOM, a UN peacekeeping force, was deployed to Somalia. These troops were soon joined by UNITAF, a US led independent UN force, in December of 1992. The two UN missions had little success even after they were granted a UN Chapter VII peacekeeping mandate in May 1993, authorizing the use of force. The UN missions were unable to address the root causes of the violence and could not negotiate an effective peace settlement. In March 1995, peacekeeping forces left Somalia without producing any long-term political stability or lasting protection of civilians.

Years of Peace Processes

After UNOSOM withdrew in 1995, regional governments took a more prominent role facilitating peace in Somalia. The process was difficult however because warlords were present at the negotiating table, in the place of clan leaders and civil society members. Dissatisfied with being left out of the peace negotiations, these groups ignored any agreements reached without their consent, triggering another wave of violent conflicts throughout the country.

A breakthrough finally came in 2000 at a peace conference in Arta, Djibouti. In Arta, clan and civil society leaders had a stronger presence in the negotiations, limiting the warlords' power. This conference resulted in the first transitional government of Somalia, creating a 245-member parliament sharing power between the major Somali clans. Unfortunately, the transitional government lacked credibility in Somalia, due to opposition from the influential warlords, as well as abroad, because of international skepticism from the United States, the European Union and the African Union. In 2005, after three years of negotiations with the East Africa based Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) a compromise was reached between all parties. Unfortunately, this step towards conflict resolution has not brought lasting peace to Somalia.

The Rise and Fall of the Islamic Courts

While the new transitional government established a political infrastructure in Somalia, over 11 Islamic Courts from different clans began operating in Mogadishu under sharia (Islamic law). In June 2006, an alliance of these courts called the Islamic Courts Union drove the warlords out of Mogadishu and began to increase its influence. The CIA became wary of jihad networks that were operating in the region and feared that the city would become a terrorist breeding ground. To counterbalance the Islamic Courts, the CIA began backed an umbrella group of warlords called the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (APRCT). This proved counterproductive to the US government, as this alliance increased local support for the Islamic Courts movement.

The Islamic Courts defeated the APRCT and took control of seven of the ten south-central Somali regions. Restructured as the Council of Somali Islamic Courts, they created a consultative council and appointed Sheikh Aweys as its head. Aweys is wanted as a terrorist by the governments of Ethiopia and the United States. As the country was still split between the Transitional Federal Government and the Islamic Courts, a series of tense peace negotiations failed and all sides continued to militarize.

As the Islamic Courts consolidated their power in Somalia, Ethiopia increased its support for the transitional government by militarizing their troops stationed on the Somali border. Tensions increased, heightening the concern of the international community. This resulted in the UN authorizing IGAD to deploy a regional intervention force, which was viewed by the Islamic Courts as favoring the transitional government. In December 2006, the Ethiopian Army invaded Somalia to support the transitional government. The Islamic Courts reacted by issuing an ultimatum, giving the Ethiopian military a week to withdraw from Somalia or face forcible expulsion. The deadline passed and the transitional government, with heavy assistance from Ethiopian military, launched a massive air and land offensive that ousted the Islamic Courts movement from Mogadishu. The transitional government and Ethiopian units occupied the former Islamic Court military bases in January 2007.

Current Conflict

On Jan. 1, 2007, the Somali prime minister entered Mogadishu demanding that all weapons be handed over to the transitional government forces within three days or face forced disarmament, a policy move which angered the insurgents and increased rebel popularity in Somalia. Between January and March, insurgents launched several attacks including assassinations of government officials and mortar attacks on military bases. These attacks often indiscriminately killed or harmed innocent non-combatant civilians.

Throughout 2007, the insurgent attacks continued to increase and all parties began to further militarize. All of the actors in the conflict have perpetrated mass atrocities against non-combatant civilians. In December 2007, the United Nations said that the current situation in Somalia was the "world's worst humanitarian disaster."

In the beginning of 2008, UNHCR reports that 20,000 people a month are being forced from their homes. Since the beginning of the year, an additional 85,000 residents have been forced to flee Mogadishu alone. Alongside this displacement, experts fear a failure of the 2008 harvest, which could add to the 2.1 million people who require food aid. The deteriorating security situation, coupled with the lack of infrastructure, may slow the delivery of humanitarian aid, further imperiling Somali civilians.