Genocide Monitor: Jul. 9, 2008

• DARFUR: Darfur remains insecure, while the government of Sudan continues its non-cooperation with the ICC. The appointment of a new joint AU-UN mediator for Darfur may help move the peace process along.
• DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Jean-Pierre Bemba, former Vice President of the DRC was extradited to The Hague to stand trial for crimes against humanity, as Thomas Lubanga's war crimes trial is temporarily suspended.
• SOMALIA: Recently named the world's most unstable state, Somalia is an increasingly dangerous location to carry out humanitarian operations.
• ZIMBABWE: Robert Mugabe won a single candidate run-off after the opposition MDC boycotted the electoral process. International condemnation is increasing as calls for a power-sharing arrangement incorporating the opposition MDC grow louder.

Spotlighted Conflict: Darfur

Situation on the Ground

Darfur remains extremely insecure. 38 UNAMID troops were held hostage by SLM/Minni rebels¹ and were eventually freed after negotiations between UNAMID and the rebels.

The continued shortage of men and material limits the full effectiveness of UNAMID in carrying out its civilian protection mandate as the force nears the one year anniversary of its authorization.²

Progress Towards ICC Compliance

Sudan continues its non-compliance with the International Criminal Court's (ICC) extradition demands for Ali Kushayb and Ahmad Haroun.

Due to this continued defiance, the Group of Eight (G8) leading industrialized nations warned Sudan that they may enact further Security Council measures if the nation does not comply with the ICC.³ The US indicated that it will not recommend a suspension of ICC indictments of suspected Darfur war criminals⁴ by the Security Council, sending a signal to the Sudanese government that the charges will not simply disappear.

ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo is slated to present more evidence to ICC judges very soon in regards to additional indictments related to war crimes in Darfur.⁵  His previous report to the Security Council suggested that indictments of high-level Sudanese officials may be in preparation. 

Peace Process

The UN and AU appointed a new joint mediator for Darfur, Djibril Bassolet, to replace the mediating team of Jan Eliasson and Salim Salim.⁶ Bassolet, the current Burkinabe foreign minister, could help move the stalled peace process forward.⁷ Upon leaving, Eliasson was downcast in his hopes for Darfur, saying "I don't believe that the parties are ready to sit down and make the necessary compromises" for peace.⁸

Withdrawal From Abyei

Sudanese government forces and South Sudanese troops withdrew from the Abyei region, following the roadmap designed to resolve the disputed province's status.⁹

Area of Concern: Somalia

The World's Most Unstable Country

The Fund for Peace, a Washington D.C. based think tank, named Somalia as the most unstable country on the globe in its annual failed state index.¹⁰ A toxic combination of anarchy, violence and food insecurity plagues the country which has been without effective government since 1991.

Fighting between Somali transitional federal government forces, Ethiopian troops and Islamist militants continues. Recent insurgent attacks on government forces and Ugandan peacekeepers resulted in 53 deaths,¹¹ while Ethiopian troops allegedly killed 71 insurgents over the past two weeks.¹²

Attacks On Humanitarians 

Somalia continues to be a very dangerous place for humanitarians. Mr. Osman Ali Ahmed, head of UN Development Programme operations in Somalia, was assassinated by unknown attackers on Sunday.¹³

This is in addition to the 14 humanitarian workers kidnapped in Somalia over the last two weeks,¹⁴ including the head of UNHCR operations in the country, Mr. Hassan Mohammed Ali Keynaan.¹⁵ Mr. Ali Keynaan's whereabouts remain unknown.

The continued insecurity of aid operations in the country could exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Somalia.

Area of Concern: Democratic Republic of Congo

Fight Against Impunity

The ICC trial of Thomas Lubanga was temporarily suspended due to concerns over equal access to evidentiary testimony.¹⁶ The proceedings may resume if there is an agreement regarding the release of confidential testimony, allowing for a fair trial to commence.

The ICC is preparing for another trial, as Jean-Pierre Bemba, the former Congolese Vice President was extradited to The Hague for crimes committed in the Central African Republic in 2002 and 2003.¹⁷

Area of Concern: Zimbabwe

A Single Candidate Election

After the ruling ZANU-PF party conducted a systematic campaign of violence, killing, injuring and displacing thousands of opposition supporters, MDC presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai withdrew from the second round of the Zimbabwean presidential election. This allowed Robert Mugabe to win re-election for his sixth term as president of Zimbabwe.¹⁸

The election process was marred by widespread fraud and intimidation,¹⁹ with the government using prison labor to forge votes for Mugabe and Zimbabwean citizens inking their fingers to avoid the wrath of ruling party thugs.²⁰

As the election was neither free nor fair, the MDC opposition urged the international community not to accept the results of the election.

International Condemnation 

The international community continued to castigate Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF in the aftermath of the run-off election. Nelson Mandela became the most recent to condemn Mugabe, speaking of the "tragic failure of leadership" in Zimbabwe.²¹

The European Union stated that it will only recognize a government led by Morgan Tsvangirai,²² while the US called the elections a sham.²³

Reports from the G8 summit indicate that members support additional sanctions on Zimbabwe if Mugabe continues to hold power.²⁴

A minority of African leaders, such as Raila Odinga, rebuked Mugabe for the violence,²⁵ while the African Union said the election fell short of the AU's democratic standards.²⁶ Mugabe's government responded by telling his critics to "go hang"²⁷ and to accept his status as President of Zimbabwe.²⁸

Chances For A Unity Government

The AU issued a call for a negotiated settlement to the Zimbabwe crisis during a summit in Egypt.²⁹ Thabo Mbeki continues to mediate in Zimababwe, meeting with Mugabe and Arthur Mutambura, leader of a breakaway MDC faction.³⁰

On Tuesday, a South African plan was tentatively welcomed by both MDC and ZANU-PF. The plan would leave Mugabe as President, but invest Morgan Tsvangirai as an executive Prime Minister.³¹