Genocide Monitor: June 11, 2008

• ZIMBABWE: Election violence continues with the armed forces implicated in the intimidation of opposition activists. Increasing violence against opposition members and the harassment of diplomatic staff illustrate the severity of the situation.
• DARFUR: The International Criminal Court increased pressure on Sudan to surrender indicted war criminals and is preparing a case against the Sudanese government for carrying out an organized campaign of violence in Darfur. UNAMID peacekeepers are facing additional difficulties after the murder of a Ugandan police officer near El Fasher.
• DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Hutu extremist rebels opened fire on a refugee camp in North Kivu, displacing up to 5,000 people, setting back the peace process, even as hundreds of other rebels demobilize.
• SOMALIA: Fighting between supporters of the Somali government and Islamist rebels rages in Mogadishu, while a recent truce agreement lays the groundwork for a possible stabilization of Somalia.

Spotlighted Conflict: Sudan

Situation on the Ground

Election violence in Zimbabwe intensified as the government continues its crackdown on opposition MDC activists. Sixty-five MDC members have been killed since violence began after the March presidential polls, including three activists who were immolated while hiding in an MDC office. UNICEF reports that over 10,000 children have been displaced by violence aimed at disrupting the electoral process by instilling fear into Zimbabweans.

The Zimbabwean government's recent actions against the diplomatic community further illustrate the seriousness of the situation. The government of President Mugabe has threatened US Ambassador James McGee with expulsion and detained American and British diplomatic staff by slashing the tires of a diplomatic delegation and threatening to burn their vehicles.

In retaliation for alleged 'political activity' by humanitarian organizations, the Zimbabwean government suspended all aid operations in the country, putting the 4.1 million people who receive international food assistance at risk and raising accusations that the government is politicizing food aid for its own benefit.

According to a new Human Rights Watch report, Mugabe's security apparatus is guilty of killing opposition activists, while liberation war veterans have threatened a return to the excesses of the liberation war unless Mugabe is reinstalled as president. 

Decreasing Likelihood of Free and Fair Elections

Over the last two weeks, the Mugabe government increased its intimidation of opposition leaders. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai was arrested twice in one week, joining fellow MDC leader Arthur Mutambura in state custody. Mutambura and Tsvangirai were both released shortly afterwards.

In order to further interdict MDC activity, the government prohibited unauthorized political rallies, instructed soldiers to vote for ZANU-PF or resign and requested that village chiefs pressure their followers to vote for Mugabe. The government also limited MDC campaigning and prohibited opposition leaders from traveling to the countryside.

Area of Concern: Darfur

Violence and Interdiction of Peacekeepers

UNAMID suffered its first casualty when an unarmed Ugandan police officer was murdered in his car in a camp near El Fasher. This follows last month's attack on Nigerian peacekeepers by mounted bandits.

It may become more difficult to deploy the UNAMID force as the Sudanese government banned US companies from operating in Sudan in retaliation for US sanctions. This affects the PA&E company's contract to build five peacekeeping bases in Darfur, further limiting the effectiveness of a mission that still does not have the equipment to fully carry out its mandate.

A recent attack on the Kalma refugee camp by armed horsemen highlights the ongoing need for a civilian protection force.

Increased ICC Pressure

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing a case against the leadership of Sudan. Luis Moreno-Ocampo reported that the Sudanese government is deliberately obstructing the extradition of two wanted war criminals and organizing a campaign to attack civilians.

The Sudanese government responded with statements charging the ICC with "wrecking the peace process", a "first-class terrorist organization" and vowing a "strong" response to an attempt to arrest the men.

The Security Council is considering a condemnation of the Sudanese government, while Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's urges prompt Sudanese cooperation with the ICC. Also under consideration is an increase in European Union action against Sudan. 

The US presidential candidates stated their intention to work for peace in Darfur and hold the Sudanese regime accountable for the crimes committed there.

Peace Process: Faltering

International negotiators call the prospects for new peace negotiations about Darfur "dim." In order to reinvigorate the process, the UN and AU are working to appoint a joint mediator to replace current negotiators Salim Salim and Jan Eliasson.

This comes as the Sudanese government stated its readiness for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, so long as JEM is banned from participating. The JEM and SLM movements currently reject the idea of peace talks, while the SLM-Unity movement stated its intention to launch attacks on Khartoum. 

Child Abductions

Waging Peace, a British NGO, issued a report stating that between 7,000 and 10,000 Darfurian children abducted from refugee camps in Chad are serving as child soldiers.

Resolution in Abyei

The civil war between the Northern and Southern regions of Sudan was nearly reignited over a boundary dispute in the Abyei region. While many residents of Abyei are displaced and Abyei town is largely destroyed, the government of Sudan and the government of South Sudan have agreed on a plan to defuse the situation in Abyei. This plan includes international arbitration of the boundary dispute and a joint administration of the town

Area of Concern: Democratic Republic of Congo

Continued Violence Against Civilians

Hutu extremist FDLR rebels opened fire on civilians at a refugee camp in North Kivu, killing 12 and displacing up to 5,000. Similar attacks have caused the displacement of more than 100,000 people in the first three months of 2008. The ENOUGH Project has prepared a report emphasizing the importance of removing the FDLR from the DRC and proposing a strategy to achieve this goal.

Disarmament

At the end of May, more than 250 Mai Mai rebels demobilized. This was followed by the surrender of 300 members of an FDLR splinter group, moves seen as the first steps towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict in the eastern DRC.

Legal Proceedings

The recent arrest of former Congolese Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba caused protests and also a renewed call to prosecute other human rights violations in the DRC. Meanwhile, the dismissal of sexual violence charges in the trial of other war criminals may increase the DRC's culture of impunity.

Area of Concern: Eastern Burma

Continued Atrocities Against Ethnic Minorities

According to a recent report by the Free Burma Rangers, the government's campaign against civilians in eastern Burma continues with attacks on Karen villages causing over 1,000 civilians to flee their homes.

Amnesty International makes a further case that crimes against humanity are occurring in the report, "Crimes Against Humanity In Eastern Myanmar." According to this report, over 140,000 ethnic minority civilians were victims of atrocities at the hand of the Burmese government, including rape, murder and forced labor.

Area of Concern: Sri Lanka

Increased Targeting of Civilians

The government vowed to crush the Tamil Tiger insurgency, possibly causing a series of retaliatory attacks targeting the Sri Lankan transport system, including a train bombing, rail sabotage and a bus bombing that killed 23. These attacks brought the total number of civilians killed since January to over 200, leading to renewed UN calls for civilian protection

Increased government offensives in the north also caused heavy casualties, with a government landmine responsible for the deaths of at least 8 civilians.

Attacks on Journalists 

An ethnic Tamil journalist was brutally murdered in northern Sri Lanka. This attack comes as the government continues its campaign to vilify reporters critical of its war effort.

Area of Concern: Somalia

Peace Process

Despite debate over the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and what some have called a "winner take all" attitude among the negotiating parties, the Somali transitional government and opposition groups signed a ceasefire agreement in Djibouti. The truce calls for a three-month halt to fighting and a withdrawal of Ethiopian troops within 120 days, contingent upon the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force. The deal has already been rejected by Islamist hardliners, who attacked police in Mogadishu after the signing of the agreement.

More Fighting in Mogadishu

Over the weekend of June 7, heavy fighting in Mogadishu continued, killing at least twenty in mortar attacks. This followed a militia attack on AU peacekeepers that killed 13. Recent fighting in Mogadishu has displaced thousands.