Genocide Monitor: May 14, 2008

• Zimbabwe: Zimbabwean army and security forces are implicated in post-election violence. Since the end of March, twenty opposition supporters have been killed and hundreds more injured. The opposition MDC already won a parliamentary majority and MDC presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai received 47% of the votes in the recent election. Due to the plurality result, a run-off is planned in the near future.
• Darfur: The security situation is deteriorating with 14 civilians killed in recent airstrikes and aid workers increasingly targeted by opportunistic violence. The national census has also sparked fighting between rebels and government forces. The peace process continues, but may be negatively impacted by recent JEM attempts to attack Khartoum.
• Democratic Republic of Congo: Renewed violence in North Kivu displaced hundreds of civilians and caused a suspension of humanitarian aid in the province. The ICC unsealed another warrant against a Congolese war criminal. MONUC peacekeepers are charged with assisting rebels in North and South Kivu.
• Somalia: US airstrikes killed an insurgent commander and dozens of civilians. Recent US attacks may impact upcoming peace talks.

Spotlighted Conflict: Zimbabwe

Situation on the Ground

Post-electoral violence in Zimbabwe continued over the past two weeks. Violence appears to be perpetrated primarily by supporters of ZANU-PF (the party in power) and the police with the army's logistical support. Since the election, over 20 supporters of the MDC (the opposition party) have been killed with hundreds more detained. In recent days, ruling party forces also arrested teachers and women's group members.

Parliamentary voting results confirmed the MDC's majority.  After the release of results, the MDC's two factions agreed on a coalition protocol, ensuring an opposition majority in parliament. Presidential results were released on April 30th and show a 47% plurality victory for the MDC. The results' credibility was called into question by independent electoral observers. As neither candidate won a clear majority (according to the government's official results), Zimbabwean electoral law calls for a second round of elections.

International Response

International pressure was instrumental in the recall of a Chinese arms shipment bound for Zimbabwe. The international community also condemned the delay in releasing the electoral results. The United States and United Kingdom called for more international participation to end the crisis and a potential arms embargo on the country. ANC leader Jacob Zuma calls this move towards sanctions premature.

The UN Security Council stated that the crisis does not constitute a threat to international peace and thus does not necessitate a response. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon voiced his personal concern over the violence and pledged UN help to assure a credible run-off election. The African Union met in Tanzania to discuss an Africa-wide solution. 

Continuing Electoral Process

The MDC is still deciding whether to participate in the run-off process; if they do not participate ZANU-PF would win by default. The MDC's initial statements indicate that participation is contingent upon a set date for the next round of elections.  There are currently reports stating the run-off may not take place within the three weeks mandated by Zimbabwean law and some observers believe that a forty-day timeline may be more likely.

Area of Concern: Darfur

Security Situation: Unimproved

Security in Darfur remains very poor, with episodes of significant violence continuing. At the end of April, a World Food Program employee was killed while making deliveries. He was the seventh humanitarian worker killed this year, followed by another killing at the beginning of May. This deterioration in security coincides with the resumption of the Sudanese government's air campaign against Darfur's civilians.  An attack on the village of Umm Sidir killed three, while another attack on a school and market in Shegeg Karo killed at least twelve. This was the deadliest air attack in Sudan in some time. UNAMID (the hybrid UN/AU mission) called the renewed bombing offensive unacceptable.

Census

The first Sudanese census in 15 years began, with the goal of setting power-sharing ratios in the central government. The UN welcomed the census as a positive step towards implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Meanwhile, IDPs protested the census due to ongoing violence in Darfur. They were joined in protest by members of two rebel groups, the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). As the census entered its second week, the Sudanese government stated that it would not count IDPs due to their opposition to the census. Shortly thereafter, violence erupted, with five deaths attributed to the government. In response, rebels arrested 13 census staffers.

Spread of the Violence: Attacks on Khartoum

On Saturday, JEM rebels attempted to attack the Sudanese capital of Khartoum in an effort to bring the violence plaguing Darfur to the government's doorstep. After driving the rebels back, the Bashir government broke off diplomatic relations with Chad, alleging Chadian support for the JEM rebels. In a statement, JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim said that this would be the first of many assaults on the capital. While this appears to be an attempt to strike back at the government in Khartoum, some international observers have questioned the decision-making behind the attack as well as JEM's true motivation.

Revision of Casualty Totals

UN official John Holmes reignited a controversy over the number of people killed in Darfur. Holmes stated that the number of deaths was nearly 300,000, a figure challenged by the Sudanese government.

Peace Process 

The peace process continued, with the British government offering to hold peace talks in London. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he was hopeful that talks would result in a ceasefire. The Arab League stated that there are still prospects for peace in Darfur.

Peacekeeping and Protection Forces

UNAMID is unlikely to be fully deployed before the end of the year. The head of UNAMID expects that eighty percent of the force would be on the ground by year's end.

Accountability

In response to an International Criminal Court (ICC) request, international human rights groups began a campaign to bring Sudanese war criminals to justice. The ICC termed one of the indicted a fugitive, prompting a renewed Sudanese refusal to cooperate with the tribunal.

The April 29 deadline for implementation of the Sudan Accountability and Divestment Act's provision prohibiting federal contracts with foreign companies operating in Sudan passed, without full government implementation.  The provision aims to remove foreign funding of the Sudanese government's actions in Darfur. This coincides with the SEC unveiling its new regulations regarding divestment in Sudan, stating that funds that divest in Sudan cannot be sued for making a decision which violates fund mandates.

Area of Concern: Democratic Republic of Congo

Resurgence of Violence in North Kivu

Renewed fighting continues in DRC's North Kivu province, causing a suspension of relief aid. Rebel attacks near the Kinyandoni IDP camp, interrupted UNHCR's processing of newly displaced persons. The current violence shows that January's peace agreement remains "words on paper".  Hundreds were displaced in the recent round of violence bringing the total number of IDPs in North Kivu to approximately 650,000.

Allegations of Peacekeeper Misconduct

The resumption of violence is accompanied by claims of misconduct among UN peacekeepers, allegedly trading weapons to rebels in exchange for gold and drugs. Human Rights Watch accuses the UN of downplaying the extent of the allegations. The UN responded by saying that these were isolated incidents and that allegations undermine the peacekeeping mission.

Fourth ICC Warrant Unsealed

In an attempt to bring justice to the victims of violence, the ICC unsealed another warrant, this time against Bosco Ntaganda, a military leader of the CDNP militia. Ntaganda, also known as "the Terminator", is accused of recruiting child soldiers during violence in Ituri. According to the head of UN operations in the DRC, this move should not endanger the peace process.

Area of Concern: Somalia

Battles between Rebels and Government

Fighting between the Somali transitional government and insurgents forced 8,200 people from Mogadishu at the end of April. In Baidoa, Somali insurgents attacked the parliament building. In response, indiscriminate fire by Ethiopian forces killed nine civilians. Recent violence led Amnesty International to declare that the killing of Somali civilians is now routine. 

US Airstrikes

US planes attacked and killed a top Somali insurgent and al-Qaeda operative. Reports indicate that thirty others were killed in the bombing. It sparked protests in Somalia and may cause Islamic rebels to boycott this month's peace talks.

Area of Concern: Eastern Burma

Cyclone Nargis hit the southern part of Burma last weekend, causing severe flooding and widespread destruction in the Irrawaddy River delta region. Initial reports indicate that the death toll may be around 20,000 already and could rise to 100,000. The international community, including the US, is standing by with aid and aircraft to deliver it, but the governing Burmese junta is reluctant to allow international aid workers to enter. In the last days, some aid has been allowed in, though access for aid workers to administer it is still almost completely blocked.

The junta's reluctance to admit international aid workers showcases their inability or unwillingness to assist their own citizens. This further highlights the human rights violations perpetrated by the ruling military government since they took over in 1962. In addition to these violations, the government has also intentionally committed large-scale mass atrocities against civilians living in the eastern regions of the country.  In an attempt to undercut calls for autonomy, the government has implemented a brutal suppression campaign, killing and displacing minority groups across the east of the country.

Not only has the Burmese junta failed to provide aid or allow others to provide it, but in the midst of this crisis, they continue to use their army to attack civilians in ethnic areas of the country. In the last ten years, roughly 3,200 villages have been burned. Over 450,000 civilians are internally displaced by the violence and more than 700,000 have fled to neighboring countries such as Thailand and India. To learn more about atrocities being committed against civilians in ethnic area of Burma, see our background on the conflict.