Tensions in Burma Rise

Submitted by kennedy@genocid... on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 9:29am

In mid-February, Burmese forces stationed in the northern region of Kachin, near the border between Burma and China, were told to prepare for combat. A seventeen-year ceasefire between the Burmese government and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) as well as other ethnic rebel groups, is ending soon, and the groups face a deadline to decide whether to disarm completely or merge with the Burmese army. The KIA has already refused the offer of merging, and while the leaders are searching for a political solution, Kachin forces are preparing for the civil war many fear is inevitable. Feelings of cultural nationalism and the use of propaganda are strong as the KIA equips and trains solders and reservists in guerilla warfare.

There are approximately two dozen ethnic groups in Burma, many suffering persecution and oppression from the military junta government. The larger, more militant ethnic groups have been in various states of ceasefire or civil war over the past few decades. The KIA stands with the United Wa State Army and the Shan State Army, each with tens of thousands of soldiers, in refusing to disarm or join the Burmese government force. The KIA’s chief of staff, Major-General Gam Shawng, states, “The Kachin, Shan, Wa and Karen people have faced marginalization, oppression, and the occasional ethnic cleansing since the beginning of the Myanmarese Junta; and, in the current security climate of Burma, they see their security ensured only through the maintaining of their arms.”

Neighboring China has already begun to attempt de-escalation in the region. The Kachin region provides China with resources such as jade, gold, and teak; China has invested billions of dollars in the energy and mining sectors of Kachin. If a civil war breaks out, China could stand to lose over $600 billion worth of investment in Burma, but the KIA should not rely on China to be its champion, since China has official diplomatic ties with the Burmese government.

A civil war in Burma is guaranteed to be protracted, cause a high civilian death toll, further destabilize the region and lead to a rush of refugees from Kachin and other regions of Burma into the neighboring nations that already host hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees and are ill-equipped to handle more.

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Tensions in Burma Rise

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