Elections in 2010: Looking toward Burma and Sudan
At Genocide Intervention Network, we often look for trigger events that may spark mass violence against civilians. These take the form of sharp economic downturns, presidential successions and national elections. We are now focused on the upcoming elections in Sudan, and the new year has brought news of an additional poll that will take place in Burma.
This focus should not be taken as a predication that violence will necessarily accompany these electoral processes and GI-NET hopes that both the elections in Burma and in Sudan are carried out in a free, fair and peaceable manner. However, it is important to note that these two countries still feature multi-faceted civil unrest, including genocide in Darfur, unrest in South Sudan's Jonglei state and insurgencies along Burma's borders, all of which could complicate the electoral picture.
The Sudanese national elections set for April 2010 represent a key point in the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) governing the end of the civil war between north and south Sudan. Through a credible national election and the subsequent preparation for the 2011 South Sudanese self-determination referendum, the 2010 elections will be the first of many points it what is likely to be a critical year for the future of Sudan.
Successful elections in Sudan would fulfill major goals of both the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The NCP would gain legitimacy over governance across Sudan and hopefully deflect attention from President Al-Bashir’s indictment by the International Criminal Court. The SPLM appears to gain the potential for South Sudanese independence after the 2011 referendum.
Ongoing violence in South Sudan, particularly in Jonglei state, is particularly troubling in the run-up to the election and the self-determination referendum. With armed conflict causing more than 2,000 deaths in 2009, it is possible that the election may not reflect the true will of the South Sudanese.
A lack of free and fair elections in Sudan have the potential to ignite further violence throughout the country, particularly if there appears to be a concerted effort to rig the outcome. There are also concerns about the disenfranchisement of displaced persons in Darfur and the further undermining of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
Elections in Burma, are also seen as a legitimizing action, particular the legitimization of 2008 Burmese constitution and by extension, the ruling military junta led by Senior General Than Shwe.
It appears unlikely that the elections will result in a transition from a military backed government. The 2008 constitution requires that 25 percent of seats in the upper and lower legislative house be reserved for army officers and imbues the position of military commander-in-chief with greater political strength. There is also no guarantee that the opposition parties, led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) would be able to effectively contest the election. More than 2,000 political prisoners, including many pro-democracy activities, remain incarcerated around the country and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been forbidden to stand in the upcoming elections.
While this may result in a overwhelming victory for the junta and symbolically nullify the results of the 1990 elections, it is unlikely to be accepted as a legitimizing step by the international community.
As well as confirming their legitimacy through the electoral process, the ruling junta is working to establish their legacy through the integration of ethnic ceasefire militias into the national security structure, primarily as border guard forces. This plan appears to have led to violence in the Kokang region of Shan state earlier this year as well as inflaming tensions between the government and the United Wa State Army, the largest ceasefire militia in eastern Burma. Coupled with the ongoing offensive against the Karen National Liberation Army along Burma border with Thailand, it is likely that the Burmese government is prepared to use deadly force against civilians to extend its suzerainty over the entirety of the country.
For a more detailed treatment of the elections, please read the International Crisis Group report, “Myanmar: Towards the Elections.”
Genocide Intervention Network will continue to monitor events in both of these countries as these polls draw closer and intends to work closely with colleagues and allies to enable free, fair and peaceful elections reflecting the will of Sudanese and Burmese citizens.
- Ben_drexler_staff's blog
- Login or register to post comments
- Email this page
- Printer-friendly version


Comments
xiaozhuang
Welcome to fashion goods online store,
http://www.coach-outlet.co.uk coach bags
http://www.coach-outlet.co.uk Coach Outlet
http://www.coach-outlet.co.uk coach outlet store online
http://www.coach-outlet.co.uk coach handbags
http://www.louisvuittononline.com louis vuitton handbags
http://www.louisvuittononline.com louis vuitton
http://www.louisvuittononline.com louis vuitton outlet
http://www.louisvuittononline.com louis vuitton bags
http://www.louisvuittononline.com LV
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max 90
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max shoes
http://www.coachs.cc coach outlet
http://www.coachs.cc coach outlet store online
http://www.coachs.cc coach handbags
http://www.coachs.cc coach bags
http://www.chanels.cc chanel bags
http://www.chanels.cc]chanel handbags
http://www.mbtshoes.cc MBT Shoes
http://www.mbtshoes.cc Anti Shoes
http://www.mbtshoes.cc cheap mbt
http://www.mbtshoes.cc womens mbt shoes
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com Coach outlet
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach bags
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach outlet store online
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach handbags
all products are good and cheap with free shipping, buy now!
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-jewelry-c-139.html chanel jewelry
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-coco-c-121.html chanel coco
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-cambon-c-122.html chanel cambon
http://www.coachs.cc/coach-wallets-c-2.html coach wallets
http://www.nike-nike.com/max-man-air-max-90-c-4_13.html nike air max 90
http://www.nike-nike.com/max-man-air-max-180-c-4_8.html nike air max 180
http://www.coach-outlet.co.uk/coach-wallets-c-2.html coach wallets
REPLICAWATCHES
Shopping for Mulberry cheap online is one of the best ways to retail shopping. One gets a variety of options in authentic LV Suhali leather cheap, replica Dolce and Gabbana and cheap Chloe. However, there are many Internet swindlers, who scam unsuspecting customers of their hard earned money. If you follow some basic rules when buying replica LV Damier Azur Handbags, there are less chances of getting duped.When shopping online, visit reputed sites who have earned the trust and popularity of online buyers over time. You can take advice regarding such websites from your friends who do online shopping. These reputed sites offer best deals on replica handbags and authentic LV old replica. In case of Celine cheap handbags, companies such as ate Spade, Louis Vuitton and Coach do not sell there cheap LV Nomade on any site, other than their own website.You should keep in mind the location of the seller. Gucci, D&G, etc. don’t manufacture Valentino Handbags in China. So, you can easily understand that these so called authentic Jp Tods replica handbags are fake! Avoid falling for ‘buy now, one day sales’. These are probably fake and the seller wants to take them off the market, as soon as possible.If you are looking for cheap LV Monogram Glace cheap handbags online, then there are retailers who offer Bally Handbags at great prices. You can ask retail store owners whether they have an option for online sale or if they could recommend some websites that offer Mulberry Handbags. Many retailers share these informations, if they have good terms with the client. It is always good to get recommendation from someone who is in the business of selling women’s Miu Miu cheap handbags.You should be weary of unbelievable deals on cheap Balenciaga Handbags. Don’t be tempted by these great deals, as Louis Vuitton Handbags don’t come cheap, and offering heavy discounts is not a good profit earning idea for anyone. The seller is just trying to pass off cheap LV Mahina Handbags or replica Celine bags.Have you ever seen a well-known designer walking down the ramp with his replica Thomas Wylde bags, saying his replica Miu Miu is genuine? Well, the answer is obviously no. If you come across an online seller who claims that his cheap Chanel are “guaranteed” or “authentic” cheap LV Suhali leather bags, then you must understand very well, the truth behind the so called LV Nomade cheap handbags.Always opt for sellers who have a ‘no strings attached’ return policy even on Celine replica. Do not buy from sellers who charge restocking fee. Any reputable seller will want happy customers and will not need a restocking fee to stay in business. It is very important to do a proper research, cheap LV Monogram Dentelle Handbags for finding a reputable seller. A genuine seller will always be ready to answer all your queries. Never rush into a sale before clearing all your doubts regarding the authenticity of cheap Prada Handbags.The world of high fashion does not offer anything cheap. Therefore, do not settle for anything that is sold at a price much lesser than the original. Following these simple rules, when shopping for Burberry cheap online. Burberry, Prada, Gucci, Coach and Louis Vuitton are the five women d replica LV Monogram Miroir, which are a must in every women’s wardrobe. So all you fashion conscious women, buying replica Thomas Wylde Handbags is now just a click away!
buy fake rolex
buy fake rolex ks on the belt and wear the watch it is a fashion trend that lots of men intend to follow So just choose from a variety of belt clip replica watches as follows replica watches InstructionsStep 1Consider if this will be the only way in which you wear your timepiece If you have given up completely on wristwatches then you may need a variety of clips and chains to wear with different outfitsStep 2Think about your lifestyle and if it will b tag heuer fake watches
Welcome to fashion goods
Welcome to fashion goods online store, coach bags Coach Outlet coach outlet store online coach handbags louis vuitton handbags louis vuitton louis vuitton outlet louis vuitton bags LV
fake watches
es have the unique style fake watches original design elegance accuracy and exclusive reliability of Swiss watches The combination of unique design and top quality has bring in six various collections swiss Alain Silberstein Dual Calendar watches measure not only seconds and minutes but days and months as well replica watches fake watches It is known that time is measured not only by the Gregorian calendar which is used all over the world This idea got its perfect realization in watches that simultaneously show
Welcome to fashion goods
Welcome to fashion goods online store,
Coach Outlet
Coach Outlet Stores
Coach Wallets
Coach Handbags
coach handbags
coach jewelry
louis vuitton handbags
louis vuitton
louis vuitton outlet
louis vuitton bags
LV
nike air max
nike air max 90
nike air max shoes
nike air max 90
nike air max 180
coach outlet
coach outlet store online
coach handbags
coach bags
coach wallets
chanel bags
chanel jewelry
chanel handbags
chanel coco
chanel cambon
Coach outlet
coach bags
coach outlet store online
coach handbags
all products are good and cheap with free shipping, buy now!
coach purses
Welcome to fashion goods online store,
http://www.coachonsale.net coach bags
http://www.coachonsale.net Coach Outlet
http://www.coachonsale.net coach outlet store online
http://www.coachonsale.net coach handbags
http://www.uselv.com louis vuitton handbags
http://www.uselv.com louis vuitton
http://www.uselv.com louis vuitton outlet
http://www.uselv.com louis vuitton bags
http://www.uselv.com LV
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max 90
http://www.nike-nike.com nike air max shoes
http://www.coachs.cc coach outlet
http://www.coachs.cc coach outlet store online
http://www.coachs.cc coach handbags
http://www.coachs.cc coach bags
http://www.chanels.cc chanel bags
http://www.chanels.cc]chanel handbags
http://www.mbts.cc MBT Shoes
http://www.mbts.cc Anti Shoes
http://www.mbts.cc cheap mbt
http://www.mbts.cc womens mbt shoes
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com Coach outlet
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach bags
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach outlet store online
http://www.coachoutlet-us.com coach handbags
all products are good and cheap with free shipping, buy now!
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-jewelry-c-139.html chanel jewelry
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-coco-c-121.html chanel coco
http://www.chanels.cc/chanel-cambon-c-122.html chanel cambon
http://www.coachs.cc/coach-wallets-c-2.html coach wallets
http://www.nike-nike.com/max-man-air-max-90-c-4_13.html nike air max 90
http://www.nike-nike.com/max-man-air-max-180-c-4_8.html nike air max 180
http://www.coachonsale.net/coach-wallets-c-2.html coach wallets
zhouyun Here I would like to
zhouyun Here I would like to introduce you to the louis vuitton outlet. The wild leather discreetly embossed with the signature louis vuitton and overlapping investment in cotton canvas, which belongs to the louis vuitton handbags, And Mohave weekend louis vuitton bags is actually a functional bag. With 19.3 cm x 13.4 cm x 11.4 measured there is ample space for everyday use, holiday travel for business or family. Open the zipper, two pockets. It can be done by hand on the shoulder or Louis Vuitton Wallets across the body with a comfortable handle and a removable, From louis vuitton Online Shop. zhouyun Gucci Bags has gained and maintained its leading edge over the past decades as a luxury goods in the world of fashion industry. When it refers to the Gucci Handbags design and elegance, no other brands can compete with Gucci Outlet for its graceful appearance and noble quality. You can't find any bags best than Gucci handbags. Discount Gucci handbags have different colors and styles, there will be one to meet your needs.Many times certain colors or styles will go on sale after the season has ended. You’ll get your hands on an authentic Gucci soon enough. Gucci men wallets are also very fashion. No matter Gucci Hobo Handbags or Gucci women wallets are loved by men and women. The chatacters of Gucci wallets are bright color but with the characters of mature and steady. How about buying Gucci bags or Gucci Walltes now? zhouyun
Coach Outlet have rarely been ultra trendy. It's a brand that always had a more understated, even sturdy design sense. If you know something about Coach Bags, you know it follows suit. That's why it's got me so annoyed Coach Handags lately to keep hearing how the Coach Outlet Store Online, and most specifically the patchwork bags that were such a hit last year were just a passing trend, and not worth buying anymore, now that the buzz is over. Buzz? Coach Wallets is timeless baby! I hope this will help to put an end to all this silly gossip that Coach handbags were a last-year thing. It's really ridiculous. Coach Jewelry just the kind of people who don't know much about Coach would say such things. Or, I don't know, am I the one who's been deceived? Am I the only person who thinks Coach is the farthest thing from a trend-only kind of designer? Buy Discount Coach Handbags.
zhouyun When asked about the reasons for luxury goods price adjustment, gina that, chanel bags periodic price hikes are inevitable every year, prices of luxury goods every year to raise the threshold through the chanel online. Last month, however, is a relatively large price adjustments in the industry believe that the main reason for chanel handbags is the larger euro.December 31, 2009, 1 euro was 9.7971 yuan, and by July 29, 2010, 1 euro 8.8532 yuan. Domestic terms Chanel Handbags 2010, the euro, and renminbi to buy European luxury goods cheaper prices. On the purchase of parts and raw materials from global luxury brand in Europe, the chanel jewelry also means shrinking profits and costs. Therefore, chanel purses though the world price adjustment across the board, but throughout the range of price adjustment is not the same as the rate of Asia to counter rising far as Europe, thus narrowing the difference brought about by chanel 2.55 bags rate. zhouyun These are the pair of shoes, and feel MBT Shoes better than the base. Uniquely designed for a wide range of internal or permanent muscle. The result is promoting metabolism, burn calories,salama mbt, strengthening and belly,panda mbt, legs MBT Tembea Mink and Cheap Anti Shoes back. Negative heel helps you align the spine of the first project zhuzhu MBT Shoes Sale On MBT Chili Sale manner, while MBT Shoes Reviews maintaining the second rock Womens MBT Shoes strength minimum weight on the pressure under the Arch of the foot. This shared on heel and forefoot, and through the arches less pressure results. Make sure that you adjust the MBT Sport Sneakers mens MBT Shoes size is correct and you want to go to a local authorized dealer, is installed correctly. zhouyun Now we present you a few shots of what supra shoes has set to release as part of their Holiday 2010 collection. Pictures are two new colorways of the supra skytop one in black/white and the other in red/black.There is also a supras in purple, a Supra Society Shoes in maroon, a Supra Vaider in black/red and another in black/blue. Follow the jump to have a closer look at all the Supra skytop high and stay tuned to kissbrand.com, we will keep you posted about these supra skytop 2.Supra shoes Sale gives us a first look at their TUF Black Tape Pack. The pack will consist of three sneaker, all in which is introduced in a red and black colorway. The shoe’s that are included in the models are the Skytop, Vaider, and Skylow 1.5, Supra skytop women.